Not sure if this was ever posted...here is the link and complete article (including update after the Sox made their comeback...)
http://www.whowins.com/features/comeback.htmlGREATEST BEST-OF-7 COMEBACK EVER
Original presentation from March 2000:
WhoWins™ -- an organization which thoroughly analyzes best-of-7-games format playoff series in Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Hockey League -- is recognizing the 1975 New York NHL Islanders for achieving the Greatest Comeback Ever in a best-of-7 MLB, NBA, or NHL playoff series. Such recognition coincides with the 25th anniversary of this Comeback, which began 20 April 1975 on Long Island and was completed on 26 April 1975 in an NHL Quarterfinal round series vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Why the 1975 Islanders? The most difficult comeback to achieve in a best-of-7 series is rebounding from a three-game deficit. In the 797 best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL series that have been played from 1905 through 1999, 211 times has a team taken a 3-0 series lead. In theory, if the competing teams have equal chances of winning each game, then the probability of the trailing team winning four straight games is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 or 6.25%. But in practice, only twice in these 211 series (0.95% -- well under 6.25%) has the trailing team rebounded to win four straight. Both rebounds occurred in the NHL: In WhoWins™ series 42 (the 1942 Stanley Cup Finals), the Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-3; in series 295 (the 1975 Stanley Cup Quarterfinals), the Islanders defeated Pittsburgh 4-3. In the NBA, teams with a 3-games-nil lead have a 60-0 series record through 1999, with only two of the losing teams (the 1951 New York Knickerbockers in series 85; the 1994 Denver Nuggets in series 669) even forcing a Game 7. In Major League Baseball, teams leading 3-games-nil have a 25-0 series record through 1999, and it wasn't until 1998 that a losing team (the 1998 Atlanta Braves in series 771, followed only by the 1999 New York Mets in series 796) so much as forced a Game 6. Thus, considering the obvious difficulty of winning a series once down three games, WhoWins™ limited its Greatest Comeback Ever candidates to the 1942 Toronto NHL Maple Leafs and the 1975 Islanders.
Why not the 1942 Leafs? This Toronto entry is without question the most worthy runner-up for the Greatest Comeback Ever crown. It was, after all, the 1942 Maple Leafs which became the first and only other team to surmount a 3-games-nil deficit, and the Leafs' 1942 feat stood alone for thirty-three years. It remains the only comeback from a three-game deficit in best-of-7 Stanley Cup Finals history -- or, for that matter, in NBA and MLB Finals history. But in awarding the Greatest Comeback Ever title to the 1975 Islanders, WhoWins™ takes into consideration 1) the inexperience of the franchise, 2) the depth of the hole in which the team found itself, 3) the extra difficulty of completing the Comeback, and 4) the noteworthy aftermath of the Comeback.
*** Inexperience: In the context of the 1975 Islanders, these traits centered on the inexperience of the team. The 1974-75 NHL season was only the third for the Long Island expansion team, and while it posted an improved 33-25-22 (88-point) record that season, its expansion and sophomore season records were the worst and next-to-worst, respectively, in the NHL. The 1974-75 Islanders also finished one point below the Comeback-opposing Pittsburgh Penguins (37-28-15, 89 points). Entering the series vs. Pittsburgh, the Islanders franchise had but one round of playoff experience - the preceding best-of-3 series vs. the New York Rangers, which it barely won (on an overtime goal, in the third and deciding game, on Rangers ice). WhoWins™ best-of-7 series 295 vs. Pittsburgh would be the first in Islanders franchise history. By contrast, the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs were a well-established franchise, whose 1941-42 season record of 27-18-3 (57 points) was 15 points better than the 19-25-4 (42 points) Detroit Red Wings of 1941-42, and which upon entering series 42 vs. Detroit had played in four of the seven NHL best-of-7 playoff series to that point. Inexperience leads to low expectations; low expectations open the door to great surprises.
*** Depth of the hole: After 17 April 1975, the likelihood of both Pennsylvania NHL teams reaching the Stanley Cup Semifinals was extremely high, as the Philadelphia Flyers led Toronto 3-games-nil in WhoWins™ series 292, and the Pittsburgh Penguins led the Islanders 3-games-nil in series 295. Indeed, Philadelphia would oust Toronto in four straight games to complete the thirty-third sweep of an NHL best-of-7 series. But Pittsburgh was doing more than merely sweeping the Islanders -- the Penguins were annihilating the Islanders. WhoWins™ defines an NHL "annihilation" as a best-of-7 series sweep in which the losing team never, ever (not even for one single second) holds a lead. Through 180 minutes (three games) of series 295, the Islanders had never led, the games had been tied for 26 minutes 41 seconds, and Pittsburgh had held leads for 153 minutes 19 seconds (85.18%) of the series. As Pittsburgh sought the eighth annihilation and thirty-fourth sweep in best-of-7 series NHL playoff history, its 85.18% of time spent leading a best-of-7 series en route to an annihilation was the third-highest such percentage in NHL history at the time, behind only the 95.15% of the St. Louis Blues in the 1969 Stanley Cup Quarterfinals (series 204 -- see the story of that eventual annihilation on this web site) and the 90.12% of the Montreal Canadiens in its 1960 NHL Finals round vs. Toronto (series 133 -- an annihilation completed by Montreal to cap a fifth-straight Stanley Cup victory). What's worse than finding your team down 3-games-to-none in a best-of-7 series? Watching the other team lead each game, for almost all of the three games. And if that 85.18% is a value of a "misery index" for the team suffering the annihilation, then the 1975 Islanders and their fans were the third-most miserable entity in NHL history up to that point. Note that the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, though down three games to Detroit, were not en route to suffering an annihilation in series 42, while the 1975 New York Islanders in series 295 clearly were.
*** Extra Comeback-completion difficulty: The Pittsburgh Penguins would realize neither an annihilation nor a sweep vs. the Islanders, as New York would win games four, five, and six of WhoWins™ series 295, thus setting the stage for the Greatest Comeback Ever in a best-of-7 MLB, NBA, or NHL series. But unlike the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders would play its deciding seventh game on road ice. What did that mean? From 1939 through 1974, NHL teams playing seventh games on road ice were 11-16, for a 40.74% winning percentage. Yet again, historical probabilities favored the home-ice Pittsburgh Penguins. Of course, on that fateful night of 26 April 1975, with 5:18 remaining in regulation, the Islanders tallied the only goal of that seventh game, denying Pittsburgh the series victory (to complement their lost annihilation and blown sweep), and completing the Greatest Comeback Ever in a best-of-7 MLB, NBA, or NHL playoff series. And (as if this Comeback needed a footnote), during the last four games of series 295, the Islanders had held leads for 126 minutes 54 seconds, the games had been tied for 113 minutes 6 seconds, and . . . most ironically in a savory way for the Islanders and their fans . . . Pittsburgh had held leads for not so much as a single second. It is as if -- from the opening face-off of Game 4 through the final horn of Game 7 -- the Islanders defeated, swept, and annihilated their opponent in series 295. It is appropriate that the team achieving the Greatest Comeback Ever faced not only a sweep but also annihilation after three games . . . and responded with not only a sweep but also an annihilation of its own -- culminating, on road ice, in the first-ever best-of-7 series for the franchise -- in games four through seven to win the series.
*** Noteworthy Comeback aftermath: The stellar comeback by the 1942 Toronto team in WhoWins™ series 42 won the Stanley Cup for the Maple Leafs, and winning the Cup -- especially upon facing an inferior Detroit team on Leaf ice in Game 7 -- had to have been the primary aim for the 1942 Leafs. After the Greatest Comeback Ever, the New York Islanders would not win the Stanley Cup in 1975. But in the 1975 NHL Semifinal series that is WhoWins™ series 296, the Long Island team would draw another Pennsylvania-based opponent: The heavily-favored Philadelphia Flyers -- the defending 1974 and eventual 1975 Stanley Cup champions, well-rested after its sweep of Toronto in series 292, and superior to the Islanders by 25 points through its 51-18-11 (113-point) record in the 1974-75 regular season. (From 1939 through 1999, only eleven times has an NHL team down 25 points or more in the regular season to another team defeated that other team in a best-of-7 series). Indeed, through the first three games of this series, Islanders fans felt a strong sense of déjà vu, as Philadelphia stormed to a 3-games-nil lead in a series it had led for 122 minutes 9 seconds (66.77%); in those three games, the Islanders had led for 0 minutes 0 seconds. But by winning games four through six, the Islanders yet again thwarted a Pennsylvania team's drive for an annihilation and a sweep. The Flyers ultimately won Game 7 on Philadelphia ice, thus halting a most improbable run by the upstart Islanders. But even the Islanders' loss in WhoWins™ series 296 is noteworthy: It marks the last time that an NHL team trailing 3-games-nil in a best-of-7 series forced a seventh game in that series. Since series 296, 77 times have NHL teams taken 3-games-nil series leads: Those teams swept 53 of those series (including seven annihilations), won 21 of those series in five games, and won 3 of those series in six. That a team should follow up the Greatest Comeback Ever with another stellar comeback effort vs. a vastly superior team is a testament to the never-say-die attitude clearly inherent in the 1975 Islanders, the only MLB, NBA, or NHL franchise to twice force a seventh game after trailing 3-games-nil . . . and in its first two best-of-7 series, no less.
The New York NHL Islanders franchise has fallen on hard times in recent years. It will again miss the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs in 2000, and it has not made those playoffs since it was swept in WhoWins™ series 651 - a 1994 Preliminary round best-of-7 series vs. the New York Rangers. (In that series, the Islanders tied an NHL record for fewest road goals in a best-of-7 series -- zero - and set an NHL Preliminary round record for fewest total goals in a best-of-7 series -- three). Nevertheless, these recent hard times do not diminish the magnitude of the Greatest Best-of-7 Comeback Ever, whose 25th anniversary the Islanders now celebrate.
Update in November 2004:
With the Boston Red Sox' best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 936 comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit vs. the New York Yankees in the 2004 MLB Semifinals, the 2004 Boston Red Sox join the 1942 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs and the 1975 NHL New York Islanders as the only MLB/NBA/NHL teams to accomplish this rare feat. Since the original March 2000 presentation through October 2004, twenty-nine more MLB/NBA/NHL teams had taken 3-games-nil best-of-7 playoff series leads, and twenty-eight (96.55%) won the series. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 894 (in the first-ever NBA best-of-7 format Preliminary round in 2003), the Dallas Mavericks saw their 3-games-nil lead over the Portland Trailblazers disintegrate into a 3-games-all tie; only a Game 7 victory on their home court kept the Mavericks from becoming the third MLB/NBA/NHL team to take a 3-games-nil playoff series lead but lose the series in seven games. The history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series that lasted the full seven games after one team took a 3-games-nil lead was laid out in the March 2000 presentation of this document. Such series seem to occur in clusters to some extent: Before the New York Islanders' back-to-back feat of Spring 1975, the only previous NHL playoff series to go the distance in the wake of a 3-games-nil lead occurred in 1939, 1942 (the year of the great Toronto Maple Leafs comeback in the Finals), and 1945 (in which Finals the Detroit Red Wings fell one game short of returning the favor vs. Toronto).
How do the 2004 MLB Boston Red Sox in series 936 compare to the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs in series 42 and to the 1975 New York Islanders in series 295? It has been noted that best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 295 was the first-ever best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Islanders. It happens that 1942 was only the fourth year of full-fledged best-of-7 playoff series in the NHL, so not only the Toronto Maple Leafs but also the other NHL teams were relatively new to best-of-7 play. Interestingly, the first-ever best-of-7 NHL playoff series played to completion was series 32, pitting the Boston Bruins vs. the New York Rangers: In that series, Boston took a 3-games-nil 1939 NHL Semifinals lead, but needed seven games to dispose of the Rangers. In the 1941 NHL Finals, Boston swept Detroit 4-games-nil. Thus, when the Detroit Red Wings took a 3-games-nil 1942 NHL Finals series 42 lead, the historical probability of that series lasting the full seven games was a perfect 50% (albeit based on a statistically insignificant two previous NHL series in which one team had seized a 3-games-nil lead). In terms of the NHL, the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs were shouldering a relatively light historical burden en route to becoming the first MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount a 3-games-nil deficit for a 4-games-3 series win.
In contrast to the 1975 NHL New York Islanders and the 1942 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs, the MLB Boston Red Sox have a best-of-7 playoff history dating all the way from 1912, when they defeated the New York Giants in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 8 to win the 1912 MLB Finals (World Series). Unlike the 1942 Leafs or the 1975 Islanders, the 2004 Red Sox were historically very experienced in best-of-7 playoff series. But aside from series 473 (in which Boston surmounted a 3-games-1 deficit to the California Angels to notch a highly improbable 4-games-3 MLB Semfinals-round victory in 1986), the Boston Red Sox' best-of-7 playoff series history had largely been a negative one since the 1910s. Their series 936 opponents, the New York Yankees, had won 26 MLB titles between the Red Sox MLB titles in 2004 and in 1918. That Boston should complete a comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit against a rival that has had so much more best-of-7 MLB playoff series success is noteworthy: The New York Yankees not only had 26 more MLB titles than the Red Sox since the 1920s, but also had a perfect best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series record of 6-0 before series 936.
The concept of the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series "annihilation" has been explained elsewhere in this document and on this site. In series 295, it is especially noteworthy that 1) during Games 1-3, the New York Islanders never once led, and that 2) during Games 4-7, the Islanders never once trailed. The Pittsburgh Penguins through three games of series 295 were en route to not only a series sweep but also an annihilation of the Islanders; if series 295 Games 4-7 were the first four games of a best-of-7 playoff series, the Islanders would have achieved not just a sweep but an annihilation vs. the Penguins. Series 295 remains unique (through October 2004) in that never before or since had a team been so thoroughly dominated during the first three games . . . and so thoroughly dominant during the last four. Thus, it may be better to compare series 42 and 936. Before doing so, however, one should note that in Games 1-3 of series 936, the Boston Red Sox held a lead after only a single half-inning (after the bottom of the second inning of Game 3), while the New York Yankees led after 48 half-innings, and the teams were tied after three half-innings. One should also note that the 19 runs plated by the Yankees in Game 3 set a new high for runs by one team in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series game. The New York Yankees were not en route to a WhoWins™ annihilation after three games of series 936, but their failure to meet the annihilation criteria certainly did not prevent them from dominating the Boston Red Sox during those first three games.
In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 42 Game 4 on Detroit ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs trailed the Detroit Red Wings 3-games-nil and 2-goals-nil with 33:53 elapsed. In the history of completed best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2003, when the home team led by two goals with 33:53 elapsed in regulation, its game record was 314-23 (93.18%). Thus, the Toronto likelihood of a Game 4 victory at that low ebb was only 6.82%. In the history of completed best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series from 1905 through 2003, teams opening the series with a LLLW win order had a post-Game 4 series record of only 2-79 (2.47%). Thus, at low ebb in Game 4 of the 1942 NHL Finals (and considering all of the unwritten assumptions and limitations behind the calculation about to be made), one might say that the Toronto Maple Leafs had only a 6.82% x 2.47% = 0.17% historical probability of winning the 1942 NHL Finals.
Of course, as was noted earlier, the weight of history was much greater on the 2004 Boston Red Sox in series 936 than it was on the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs in series 42. In Game 4 of series 936, the Red Sox in Boston trailed the Yankees by one run after eight full innings. In the history of completed best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2003, when the home team trailed by one run with eight innings elapsed, its game record was 11-79 (12.22%). Thus, at low ebb in Game 4 of the 2004 MLB Semifinals between Boston and New York (and again considering all of the unwritten assumptions and limitations), one might say that the Boston Red Sox had only a 12.22% x 2.47% = 0.30% historical probability of winning series 936. Of course, Boston also hosted and trailed New York by two runs after seven full innings of series 936 Game 5: In the history of completed best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2003, when the home team trailed by two runs with seven innings elapsed, its game record was 11-66 (14.29%). In the history of completed best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series from 1905 through 2003, teams opening the series with a LLLWW win order had a post-Game 5 series record of 2-18 (10.00%). If allowed one more calculation and its attendant assumptions, one might note that the historical probability of a team 1) trailing Game 4 by one run after eight innings and 2) trailing Game 5 by two runs after seven innings had a historical series victory probability of 12.22% x 14.29% x 10.00% = 0.17% . . . ironically, a percentage previously seen in the context of the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs.
After accomplishing the first-ever MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 comeback series victory from a 3-games-nil deficit in playoff series 42, the Toronto Maple Leafs were the 1942 NHL champions - they had nothing left to accomplish in 1942. After replicating the Leafs' feat in series 295, the New York Islanders faced the Philadelphia Flyers in series 296: Again, the Islanders' opponents were en route to not only a sweep but also an annihilation after three games of series 296; again, the Islanders forced a Game 7 (before finally succumbing to the eventual 1975 NHL champions). In the history of completed best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series from 1905 through 2003, teams trailing 3-games-nil had a series record of 2-231 (0.86%), and had forced a Game 7 in eight of those 233 series (3.43%). Thus, using data through 2003 in the wake of a number of assumptions, the historical probability of a team trailing 3-games-nil in consecutive series but winning the first and forcing a Game 7 in the second is 0.86% x 3.43% = 0.029% . . . roughly three in ten-thousand. As for the 2004 Boston Red Sox: After surmounting a one-run deficit after eight full innings in series 936 Game 4, and after surmounting a two-run deficit after seven full innings in Game 5, the Red Sox never tasted another deficit during the rest of the 2004 MLB post-season. Not during series 936 Games 6 and 7 in New York; not during series 938 vs. the St. Louis Cardinals (which won the 1946 and 1967 MLB Finals in seven games vs. the Red Sox) in the 2004 MLB Finals. So dominant were the Boston Red Sox after series 936 Game 5 that they led New York after 30 of 36 half-innings in Games 6 and 7, and led St. Louis after 64 of the 70 half-innings in the 2004 MLB Finals. The Red Sox both swept and annihilated the Cardinals in the 2004 MLB Finals - it was the first MLB best-of-7 playoff series WhoWins™ annihilation since the 1989 MLB Finals. Exiting the 2004 MLB playoffs, the Boston Red Sox hold an active MLB-record streak of 59 consecutive innings without having trailed in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series game; this streak broke the record of the 56.5 consecutive deficit-free innings set by the Oakland Athletics in best-of-7 MLB playoff series during 1989 and 1990. [The 59 and 56.5 numbers disregard ninth innings in which the Red Sox in Boston and the Athletics in Oakland did not bat; if such innings were considered, those numbers would be 60 and 57.5, respectively.] Exiting the 2004 MLB playoffs, the Boston Red Sox hold an active MLB-record streak of 51 consecutive innings with a lead at some point in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series game; this streak shattered the record of 27 consecutive innings with a lead at some point, set by the New York Yankees in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series during 1998 vs. the Cleveland Indians (Games 4 through 6). In terms of following up a comeback series victory in the wake of a 3-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series deficit, the 1975 New York Islanders and the 2004 Boston Red Sox are profiles in dissimilar excellence.
Look for more updates to this document with the next MLB/NBA/NHL comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit in a best-of-7 playoff series. Do not look for a subsequent awarding of a "Greatest Best-of-7 Comeback Ever" title. It is evident that the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, and most recently the 2004 Boston Red Sox have accomplished outstanding feats in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff history. The braintrust of WhoWins™ (or at least what passes for it) now believes that it does a disservice to all three teams by attempting a ranking; it hopes that readers will find the information presented above to be a testimony to the greatness of these three very special teams.