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Every year I'm foolish enough to make predictions about the show early in the game. And every year I'm reminded how dumb that is. Contestants that seem to be ruling at the start of the Top 24 or the Top 12 can fall out of favor, or not perform up to expectations--while others suddenly bolt unexpectedly out of the starting gate. If you had told me at the start of the Top 12 that Bucky would have outlasted Mandisa, I wouldn't have believed you. Back then, I predicted Ace as the winner, with Mandisa at least 4 or 5. Since then, Ace has made a couple of trips to the bottom three and Mandisa has been eliminated in 9th place.

Nigel promised another shocker tonight. Really, the only shock would have been the consistent front runners--Taylor, Chris or Kellie in the Bottom 3. Paris's appearance was slightly shocking, but not really--she didn't seem to connect with the audience in her usual way this week. Bucky is like the little engine that could. He's got People, ya'll. His performances, while maybe not spectacular, are consistent. He seems to be able to pick good songs, and his easy, genuine, charm has helped him gather a loyal fan base. Having the pimp spot helped Bucky too. Elliott didn't have a great spot in the line up this week. His performance, though good, wasn't "wow" enough to be noticed. His appearance in the bottom 3 was predictable. Ace and Katharine's fans worked overtime to keep their favorites safe. And the fact that Ace performed very well, helped to throw some casual votes his way.

Car-mercial

I liked tonight's commercial. The sets and costuming were really excellent. The photography was cool--very industrial looking. And the guys looked kind of, uhhhm, good all blue-collared-up. Yeah.

Ryan pimps Kellie afterward with this vaguely insulting crack, "I have a feeling Kellie thinks that's how cars are really made." Being mocked because she's "stupid" is actually going to deliver Kellie more votes. That actually blows my mind.

3 Groups of 3

The kids will be split up into three different groups. Ryan tells us that "we are going to do this a little differently." Well, actually, not quite. Season 3 and 4, the Top 9 night were split up this way too. After the kids are split, the audience is invited to take a big gander. Which group could possibly be the Bottom 3? Actually, I guessed it pretty quickly. Taylor is the first one called to the stage. Hey, there's the Top 3! Chris and Kellie eventually join him. Yup. Mandisa is called to the stage, then Elliott joins her group. Elliott is smiling, cause he knows. The Bottom 3. They hold hands on stage--they both know. Paris joins Mandisa and Elliott. Hmmm. Paris? A little shocking. Katharine and Bucky are called last to stand with Ace. Yep, middle of the pack. Taylor, Kellie and Chris are sent immediately back to the couches. Paula already looks like she's going to have a meltdown. Katharine is smiling like she knows she dodged the bullet this week.

The Bottom 3

After a break--Bucky, Katharine and Ace are also sent back to the couches. That leaves Mandisa, Elliott and Paris as the Bottom 3. Ryan tells us that each contestant is making their first trip to the Bottom. I guess that's sorta shocking, but it's not unprecedented. Paris is quickly sent back to the couches. Note to Paris's mom: Sit your daughter down and tell her that it really looks assy to just skip back to the couches without even a word to your fellow bottom 3 dwellers who are still in danger of getting the boot.

The Elimination

Mandisa and Elliott are left. This actually is a real cliffhanger--both seemed to be teetering on the edge equally this week. Simon predicts that Elliott will stay based on song selection. And he turns out to be right. When Ryan tells Elliott he's safe, there's a shot of Taylor beginning to clap. He awkwardly stops mid-clap when he realizes he's on camera--sort of weird. The crowd slowly begins to act surprised. I'm imagining Ken or Nigel frantically signalling the crowd to react--it didn't sound very spontaneous. Ryan hugs Mandisa. She thanks her fans and thanks Jesus. We see her goodbye package and she performs her singout.